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Canada

Bowmanville—Oshawa North


MP: Jamil Jivani (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Bowmanville—Oshawa North


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 8% 40.4% 44.7% 49.8% LPC 45% ± 8% 33.3% 30.8% 45.5% NDP 3% ± 2% 19.3% 18.4% 2.9% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.8% PPC 0% ± 0% 2.0% 5.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Bowmanville—Oshawa North 50% ± 8% CPC 45% ± 8%▼ LPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 49.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bowmanville—Oshawa North 73%▼ CPC 27%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bowmanville—Oshawa North

LPC 45% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Bowmanville—Oshawa North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 59% LPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% LPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 58% LPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% LPC 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 54% LPC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% LPC 26% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% LPC 28% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 29% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 31% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 33% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 48% LPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 47% LPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 46% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bowmanville—Oshawa North

LPC 27% CPC 73% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader
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